Issue << content << Risk-Oriented Approach to the Control of Maintenance and Industrial Safety of Natural Gas Trunk Pipelines

DOI: 10.12737/article_5d11f58bda5d75.31956834

2019. Vol.22. No. 2, pp. 18–22

Risk-Oriented Approach to the Control of Maintenance and Industrial Safety of Natural Gas Trunk Pipelines

S. I. Dolgov, S. V. Ovcharov, Yu. Yu. Petrova, Yu. V. Gamera

The article presents the Gazprom VNIIGAZ experience in risk analysis methodology development and application for the control of maintenance and industrial safety (risk-oriented approach) of natural gas pipeline transportation facilities by way of example of creating and use of quantitative risk assessment methodical block and appropriate soft module in gas pipeline maintenance and integrity control system (GPMICS). The study identified the position, purpose, functions of the risk assessment methodical block and soft module in GPMICS and their content. The soft module targets at the estimation of the aggregate risk value (defined as multiplication of an expected pipeline incident rate and predicted damage from the incidents) at every elementary pipeline section for further ranging of the sections by risk level and planning their inspections and repairs in depend on the section risk levels. The soft module includes 3 submodules: the incident rate estimation submodule, the damage estimation submodule and the risk estimation submodule. The first one realizes the score-factor method to predict a pipeline section incident rate by the special correction of the fixed Russia gas transportation system average incident rate with help of special worked out scores and coefficients reflecting the contribution of different internal and external factors (technical, service, natural, demographic and other ones), influencing on the pipeline section considered, to the possibility of the section incident occurrence. The second submodule realizes a row of mathematical models allowing to consider some incident scenarios for every pipeline section, to predict the sizes of affected areas received from different incident damage factors, to define dose-effect functions, to evaluate damages for different recipients (people, assets, nature) with gaining eventually the mathematical expectation of total damage in monetary terms. The third submodule combines the expected pipeline incident rate and predicted monetary damages to calculate the aggregate risk value at every pipeline section and to range all the sections by risk levels taking into account the risk criteria specially entered. According to predicted risk value caught in one or another criterion range the every pipeline section is assigned certain compensatory measures to reduce risk. The approach realized in GPMICS allows optimizing planning the inspections, maintenance and repairs of trunk gas pipelines.
Keywords: risk analysis, gas trunk pipeline, control, maintenance, industrial safety


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